Manchester United vs Sunderland: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueMatchday 18Kick-off on December 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Old Trafford, Manchester
The Footlab AI model makes Manchester United the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Sunderland. The most likely score is 1-1. If Manchester United wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,527 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchester United vs Sunderland?
On Elo ratings, Manchester United has 2,083 points and Sunderland 1,985.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Manchester United vs Sunderland
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Manchester United
4-2-3-1- 19B. Mbeumo
- 16A. Diallo
- 8Bruno Fernandes
- 10Matheus Cunha
- 18Y. Tielemans
- 37K. Mainoo
- 5H. Maguire
- 2Diogo Dalot
- 15Leny Yoro
- 3N. Mazraoui
- 1S. Lammens
Sunderland
4-2-3-1- 9B. Brobbey
- 34G. Xhaka
- 27N. Sadiki
- 32T. Hume
- 28E. Le Fée
- 10N. Angulo
- 17Reinildo
- 13L. O'Nien
- 20N. Mukiele
- 12T. Meunier
- 22R. Roefs
Computed on November 12, 2026 at 06:59 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester United have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Sunderland have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 4-4 | Premier League |
| Nov 3, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Como(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Chelsea(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Nov 5, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Manchester United wins, 1 draw, 1 Sunderland win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Sunderland 0-0 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Manchester United 2-0 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Apr 9, 2017 | Sunderland 0-3 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Dec 26, 2016 | Manchester United 3-1 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Feb 13, 2016 | Sunderland 2-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Sep 26, 2015 | Manchester United 3-0 Sunderland | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Sunderland vs Manchester United on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Manchester United score 1.6 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Sunderland score 1.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Sunderland | 1.0 | 1.4 | 5 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchester United sit 18th in Premier League (8 points from 10 matches) and Sunderland sit 19th (8 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 8 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 8 |
A question about Manchester United vs Sunderland?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchester United vs Sunderland?
- The Footlab AI model makes Manchester United the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Sunderland.
- Where and when is Manchester United vs Sunderland played?
- Manchester United vs Sunderland is played on December 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Old Trafford, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.