Hull City vs Leeds: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)The MKM Stadium, Hull
The Footlab AI model makes Leeds the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Hull City. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leeds wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,475 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hull City vs Leeds?
Leeds starts as the favourite with a 223-point Elo edge (2,235 vs 2,012).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Hull City vs Leeds
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Hull City
5-4-1- 9O. McBurnie
- 27R. Slater
- 25M. Crooks
- 7S. Thomas
- 10M. Belloumi
- 2L. Coyle
- 6S. Ajayi
- 3R. Giles
- 15J. Egan
- 32N. Mendy
- 19K. Tzolakis
Leeds
3-4-2-1- 9D. Calvert-Lewin
- 4E. Ampadu
- 2J. Bogle
- 18A. Stach
- 19N. Okafor
- 22A. Tanaka
- 3G. Gudmundsson
- 5T. Muharemović
- 24J. Justin
- 30N. Elvedi
- 1J. Trafford
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 12:28 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hull City have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Leeds have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Everton(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Newcastle(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 3-6 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Hull City wins, 3 draws, 3 Leeds wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2025 | Hull City 3-3 Leeds | Championship |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Leeds 2-0 Hull City | Championship |
| Apr 1, 2024 | Leeds 3-1 Hull City | Championship |
| Sep 20, 2023 | Hull City 0-0 Leeds | Championship |
| Sep 16, 2020 | Leeds 1-1 Hull City | League Cup |
| Feb 29, 2020 | Hull City 0-4 Leeds | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Hull City score 1.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Leeds score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City | 1.2 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Leeds | 1.8 | 1.3 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hull City sit 8th in Premier League (9 points from 6 matches) and Leeds sit 7th (9 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
A question about Hull City vs Leeds?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hull City vs Leeds?
- The Footlab AI model makes Leeds the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Hull City.
- Where and when is Hull City vs Leeds played?
- Hull City vs Leeds is played on December 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at The MKM Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.