Newcastle vs Tottenham: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 32Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
The Footlab model makes Newcastle the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Tottenham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle vs Tottenham?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Newcastle (2,146) and Tottenham (2,113).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Tottenham have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Liverpool(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Brentford(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Newcastle win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Tottenham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2026 | Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Newcastle 2-2 Tottenham | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Newcastle 2-0 Tottenham | League Cup |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Tottenham 1-1 Newcastle | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Newcastle 2-1 Tottenham | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Tottenham vs Newcastle on Feb 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle score 1.4 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Tottenham score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Tottenham | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newcastle sit 11th in Premier League (1 points from 1 matches) and Tottenham sit 18th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle vs Tottenham?
- The Footlab model makes Newcastle the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Tottenham.
- Where and when is Newcastle vs Tottenham played?
- Newcastle vs Tottenham is played on April 17, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at St. James' Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.