Le Mans vs Estac Troyes: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 31Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
The Footlab AI model makes Le Mans the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Estac Troyes. The most likely score is 1-1. If Le Mans wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,461 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Le Mans vs Estac Troyes?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Le Mans (1,975) and Estac Troyes (1,962).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Le Mans vs Estac Troyes
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Le Mans
3-1-4-2- 14L. Mafouta
- 13H. Diallo
- 26R. Bamba
- 10J. Vercruysse
- 29L. Bretelle
- 22L. Calodat
- 8A. Lauray
- 5H. Voyer
- 17S. Yohou
- 15N. Boissé
- 98N. Kocik
Estac Troyes
4-2-3-1- 9J. Le Douaron
- 8M. Diop
- 17A. Mille
- 29D. Karim
- 11I. Gomis
- 7K. Diawara
- 6A. Monfray
- 4M. Diaz
- 2L. Maronnier
- 5P. Gozzi
- 33P. Beach
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 04:59 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Le Mans have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Estac Troyes have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Guingamp(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Lorient(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lens(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Nice(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Marseille(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Dijon(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Angers(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lille(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 2-6 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Le Mans wins, 2 draws, 2 Estac Troyes wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Estac Troyes 0-2 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Le Mans 2-2 Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 18, 2019 | Estac Troyes 2-1 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| Feb 24, 2012 | Estac Troyes 2-1 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 26, 2011 | Le Mans 1-1 Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
| May 10, 2011 | Estac Troyes 0-1 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
Last archived meeting: Estac Troyes vs Le Mans on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Le Mans score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Estac Troyes score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Estac Troyes | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Le Mans sit 14th in Ligue 1 (6 points from 6 matches) and Estac Troyes sit 17th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Le Mans vs Estac Troyes?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Le Mans vs Estac Troyes?
- The Footlab AI model makes Le Mans the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Estac Troyes.
- Where and when is Le Mans vs Estac Troyes played?
- Le Mans vs Estac Troyes is played on May 8, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Marie-Marvingt, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.