Lyon vs Paris Saint Germain: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 31Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Groupama Stadium, Saint-Denis
The Footlab AI model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Lyon. The most likely score is 1-1. If Paris Saint Germain wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lyon vs Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain starts as the favourite with a 177-point Elo edge (2,363 vs 2,186).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lyon vs Paris Saint Germain
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lyon
4-2-3-1- 17L. Openda
- 23T. Morton
- 8C. Tolisso
- 7E. Nuamah
- 2M. Bidstrup
- 10P. Šulc
- 20F. Bacher
- 13Z. Athekame
- 16Abner
- 21R. Kluivert
- 1D. Greif
Paris Saint Germain
4-3-3- 11M. Akliouche
- 10O. Dembélé
- 9Ferran Torres
- 87João Neves
- 17Vitinha
- 33W. Zaïre-Emery
- 2A. Hakimi
- 51W. Pacho
- 5Marquinhos
- 25Nuno Mendes
- 39M. Safonov
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:38 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lyon have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Paris Saint Germain have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Lens(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Anderlecht(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Paris FC(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 4-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Le Mans(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava(home) | 6-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Lyon win, 0 draws, 5 Paris Saint Germain wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Lyon 2-3 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Lyon 2-3 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| May 25, 2024 | Lyon 1-2 Paris Saint Germain | Coupe de France |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Paris Saint Germain 4-1 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lyon score 1.6 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Paris Saint Germain score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.9 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lyon sit 4th in Ligue 1 (11 points from 6 matches) and Paris Saint Germain sit 6th (11 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 11 |
A question about Lyon vs Paris Saint Germain?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lyon vs Paris Saint Germain?
- The Footlab AI model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Lyon.
- Where and when is Lyon vs Paris Saint Germain played?
- Lyon vs Paris Saint Germain is played on May 9, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Groupama Stadium, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.