Rochdale vs Crewe: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 25Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Crown Oil Arena, Rochdale, Greater Manchester
The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Crewe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rochdale vs Crewe?
Rochdale starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (1,895 vs 1,784).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rochdale have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Crewe have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bradford(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Northampton(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crawley Town(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chester(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Rochdale win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Crewe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | Crewe 1-1 Rochdale | League Two |
| Jul 30, 2022 | Rochdale 1-2 Crewe | League Two |
| Apr 24, 2021 | Crewe 1-1 Rochdale | League One |
| Jan 9, 2021 | Rochdale 3-3 Crewe | League One |
| Feb 16, 2016 | Rochdale 2-2 Crewe | League One |
| Feb 6, 2016 | Crewe 2-0 Rochdale | League One |
How many goals should we expect?
Rochdale score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Crewe score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Crewe | 1.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rochdale sit 23rd in League Two (0 points from 2 matches) and Crewe sit 2nd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Crewe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rochdale vs Crewe?
- The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Crewe.
- Where and when is Rochdale vs Crewe played?
- Rochdale vs Crewe is played on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Crown Oil Arena, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.