York vs Chesterfield: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 42Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)LNER Community Stadium, York, North Yorkshire
The Footlab AI model makes York the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Chesterfield. The most likely score is 1-1. If York wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,475 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win York vs Chesterfield?
York starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,972 vs 1,868).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for York vs Chesterfield
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
York
3-4-2-1- 10O. Pearce
- 28O. Banks
- 8A. Hunt
- 30A. Newby
- 7J. Grey
- 12H. Boyes
- 23J. Felix
- 3M. Kitching
- 2R. Fallowfield
- 5Z. Johnson
- 1Alfie Shane McNally
Chesterfield
4-2-3-1- 10L. Bonis
- 20G. McEachran
- 8R. Stirk
- 24D. Markanday
- 18L. Marsh
- 31J. Randall
- 6J. Simpson
- 33R. Hutton
- 19L. Gordon
- 5K. McFadzean
- 23R. Boot
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 08:19 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, York have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Chesterfield have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Northampton(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Gillingham(home) | 3-0 | League Two |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Chesterfield(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Newcastle United U21(home) | 1-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Crawley Town(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Tranmere(home) | 4-2 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Port Vale(home) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 19, 2026 | York(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 York wins, 1 draw, 3 Chesterfield wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Chesterfield 2-0 York | League Two |
| Mar 29, 2024 | York 2-1 Chesterfield | National League |
| Oct 24, 2023 | Chesterfield 4-0 York | National League |
| Apr 7, 2023 | Chesterfield 1-3 York | National League |
| Oct 25, 2022 | York 1-1 Chesterfield | National League |
| Jan 28, 2014 | York 0-2 Chesterfield | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
York score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Chesterfield score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Chesterfield | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
York sit 5th in League Two (15 points from 9 matches) and Chesterfield sit 7th (15 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 15 |
A question about York vs Chesterfield?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for York vs Chesterfield?
- The Footlab AI model makes York the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Chesterfield.
- Where and when is York vs Chesterfield played?
- York vs Chesterfield is played on April 17, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at LNER Community Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.