Colchester vs Newport County: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 41Kick-off on April 13, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC)JobServe Community Stadium, Colchester, Essex
The Footlab model makes Colchester the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Newport County. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Colchester vs Newport County?
A very open match: only 57 Elo points separate Colchester (1,768) and Newport County (1,712).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Colchester have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Newport County have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Accrington ST(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Southampton(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(away) | 3-5 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rochdale(home) | 3-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Colchester win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Newport County win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Newport County 1-2 Colchester | League Two |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Colchester 4-1 Newport County | League Two |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Newport County 0-2 Colchester | League Two |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Colchester 0-0 Newport County | League Two |
| Mar 29, 2024 | Colchester 2-1 Newport County | League Two |
| Oct 3, 2023 | Newport County 2-1 Colchester | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Newport County vs Colchester on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Colchester score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Newport County score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Newport County | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Colchester sit 5th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Newport County sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Colchester | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Newport County | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Colchester vs Newport County?
- The Footlab model makes Colchester the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Newport County.
- Where and when is Colchester vs Newport County played?
- Colchester vs Newport County is played on April 13, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at JobServe Community Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.