Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 38Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Fortaleza, Ceará
The Footlab AI model makes Fortaleza EC the favourite at 47%, against 30% for a draw and 23% for Vila Nova. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Fortaleza EC (1,820) and Vila Nova (1,782).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fortaleza EC
4-3-3- 32Luiz Fernando
- 16Pedro Henrique
- 11Vitinho
- 88Lucas Sasha
- 5Pierre
- 75Rodriguinho
- 6T. Cardona
- 22Maílton
- 3Lucas Gazal
- 12Kaio Henrique
- 1João Ricardo
Vila Nova
4-2-3-1- 7André Luís
- 10Marquinhos Gabriel
- 99Janderson
- 5João Vieira
- 15Dudu
- 17Everton Galdino
- 4Douglas Mendes
- 22Hayner
- 6Higor
- 23Jonathan Costa
- 1Helton Leite
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:39 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fortaleza EC have 6 wins, 8 draws and 1 defeat; Vila Nova have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | CRB(home) | 2-2 | Serie B |
| Oct 7, 2026 | America Mineiro(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Nautico Recife(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 2-2 | Serie B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Londrina(away) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nautico Recife(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Cuiaba(home) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Botafogo SP(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Londrina(home) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Sep 18, 2026 | America Mineiro(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Fortaleza EC wins, 2 draws, 1 Vila Nova win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Vila Nova 2-1 Fortaleza EC | Serie B |
| Sep 22, 2018 | Fortaleza EC 2-0 Vila Nova | Serie B |
| Jun 6, 2018 | Vila Nova 0-0 Fortaleza EC | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2015 | Vila Nova 0-0 Fortaleza EC | Serie C |
| May 23, 2015 | Fortaleza EC 3-2 Vila Nova | Serie C |
Last archived meeting: Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC on Jul 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fortaleza EC score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Vila Nova score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza EC | 1.3 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Vila Nova | 1.4 | 0.7 | 10 | 2/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fortaleza EC sit 4th in Serie B (57 points from 33 matches) and Vila Nova sit 1st (61 points from 33 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 46 | 31 | 61 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 33 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 39 | 29 | 57 |
A question about Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fortaleza EC the favourite at 47%, against 30% for a draw and 23% for Vila Nova.
- Where and when is Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova played?
- Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova is played on November 14, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.