Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 38Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Fortaleza, Ceará
The Footlab model makes Fortaleza EC the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Vila Nova. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Fortaleza EC (1,942) and Vila Nova (1,873).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fortaleza EC have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Vila Nova have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Criciuma(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | São Bernardo(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cuiaba(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 3-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ponte Preta(home) | 6-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sport Recife(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | CRB(away) | 0-2 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Fortaleza EC win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Vila Nova win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Vila Nova 2-1 Fortaleza EC | Serie B |
| Sep 22, 2018 | Fortaleza EC 2-0 Vila Nova | Serie B |
| Jun 6, 2018 | Vila Nova 0-0 Fortaleza EC | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2015 | Vila Nova 0-0 Fortaleza EC | Serie C |
| May 23, 2015 | Fortaleza EC 3-2 Vila Nova | Serie C |
Last archived meeting: Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC on Jul 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fortaleza EC score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Vila Nova score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza EC | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Vila Nova | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fortaleza EC sit 4th in Serie B (40 points from 24 matches) and Vila Nova sit 3rd (41 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Vila Nova | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 41 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 27 | 21 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova?
- The Footlab model makes Fortaleza EC the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Vila Nova.
- Where and when is Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova played?
- Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova is played on November 14, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.