Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J.: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio República de Mataderos, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Nueva Chicago the favourite at 37%, against 32% for a draw and 31% for San Martin S.J.. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J.?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Nueva Chicago (1,716) and San Martin S.J. (1,789).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nueva Chicago have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; San Martin S.J. have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Atlanta(home) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 17, 2026 | All Boys(away) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Gimnasia Y Tiro(away) | 0-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | San Martin Tucuman(home) | 2-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Atletico DE Rafaela(away) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gimnasia Y Tiro(home) | 3-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Racing Cordoba(away) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | San Martin Tucuman(away) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atletico DE Rafaela(home) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Agropecuario(away) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Nueva Chicago win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 San Martin S.J. win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2024 | San Martin S.J. 1-0 Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Nueva Chicago 2-1 San Martin S.J. | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2023 | Nueva Chicago 0-0 San Martin S.J. | Primera Nacional |
| Apr 6, 2023 | San Martin S.J. 0-0 Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| May 21, 2022 | San Martin S.J. 3-1 Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| Nov 29, 2020 | San Martin S.J. 1-0 Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: San Martin S.J. vs Nueva Chicago on Dec 1, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Nueva Chicago score 0.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; San Martin S.J. score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nueva Chicago | 0.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| San Martin S.J. | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nueva Chicago sit 14th in Primera Nacional (29 points from 25 matches) and San Martin S.J. sit 11th (32 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | San Martin S.J. | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 24 | 32 |
| 14 | Nueva Chicago | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 24 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J.?
- The Footlab model makes Nueva Chicago the favourite at 37%, against 32% for a draw and 31% for San Martin S.J..
- Where and when is Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J. played?
- Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J. is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio República de Mataderos, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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