Olimpia Elbląg vs Mławianka Mława: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 1Group I - 12Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Elbląg
The Footlab model makes Mławianka Mława the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Olimpia Elbląg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Olimpia Elbląg vs Mławianka Mława?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Olimpia Elbląg (1,635) and Mławianka Mława (1,714).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Olimpia Elbląg have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Mławianka Mława have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki(away) | 2-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Widzew II(home) | 0-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Olimpia Zambrów(away) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm.(home) | 4-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Wisła Płock II(home) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Łomża(away) | 0-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki(home) | 2-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Weszlo(away) | 1-5 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Pelikan Łowicz(home) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Warta Sieradz(away) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Olimpia Elbląg win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Mławianka Mława win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Olimpia Elbląg 0-2 Mławianka Mława | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Mławianka Mława 1-1 Olimpia Elbląg | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Olimpia Elbląg 6-3 Mławianka Mława | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Olimpia Elbląg 3-0 Mławianka Mława | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Olimpia Elbląg vs Mławianka Mława on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Olimpia Elbląg score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Mławianka Mława score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olimpia Elbląg | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Mławianka Mława | 1.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Olimpia Elbląg sit 11th in III Liga - Group 1 (7 points from 5 matches) and Mławianka Mława sit 14th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Olimpia Elbląg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 7 |
| 14 | Mławianka Mława | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Olimpia Elbląg vs Mławianka Mława?
- The Footlab model makes Mławianka Mława the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Olimpia Elbląg.
- Where and when is Olimpia Elbląg vs Mławianka Mława played?
- Olimpia Elbląg vs Mławianka Mława is played on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the III Liga - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Wigry SuwałkivsWarta Sieradz
- Oct 10, 2026Olimpia ZambrówvsLechia T. Mazowiecki
- Oct 10, 2026SwitvsŁKS Łódź II
- Oct 10, 2026Wisła Płock IIvsTroszyn
- Oct 10, 2026Polonia Lidzbark Warm.vsŁomża
- Oct 10, 2026Widzew IIvsWeszlo
- Oct 10, 2026Ząbkovia ZąbkivsJagiellonia II
- Oct 10, 2026Mazovia Minsk MazowieckivsPelikan Łowicz