Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Pelikan Łowicz: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 1Group I - 12Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki the favourite at 53%, against 21% for a draw and 26% for Pelikan Łowicz. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Pelikan Łowicz?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (1,752) and Pelikan Łowicz (1,654).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 6 matches in all competitions, Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki have 3 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats; Pelikan Łowicz have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Olimpia Elbląg(home) | 2-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Swit(away) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ząbkovia Ząbki(home) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Troszyn(away) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Jagiellonia II(home) | 2-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Troszyn(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Jagiellonia II(away) | 0-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | ŁKS Łódź II(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Mławianka Mława(away) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Łomża(home) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki score 2.3 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 6; Pelikan Łowicz score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0 | 6/6 | 6/6 |
| Pelikan Łowicz | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 6 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki sit 3rd in III Liga - Group 1 (10 points from 5 matches) and Pelikan Łowicz sit 4th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 10 |
| 4 | Pelikan Łowicz | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Pelikan Łowicz?
- The Footlab model makes Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki the favourite at 53%, against 21% for a draw and 26% for Pelikan Łowicz.
- Where and when is Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Pelikan Łowicz played?
- Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Pelikan Łowicz is played on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the III Liga - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Wigry SuwałkivsWarta Sieradz
- Oct 10, 2026Olimpia ElblągvsMławianka Mława
- Oct 10, 2026Olimpia ZambrówvsLechia T. Mazowiecki
- Oct 10, 2026SwitvsŁKS Łódź II
- Oct 10, 2026Wisła Płock IIvsTroszyn
- Oct 10, 2026Polonia Lidzbark Warm.vsŁomża
- Oct 10, 2026Widzew IIvsWeszlo
- Oct 10, 2026Ząbkovia ZąbkivsJagiellonia II