Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Jagiellonia II: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 1Group I - 12Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Dolcanu Ząbki, Ząbki
The Footlab model makes Jagiellonia II the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Ząbkovia Ząbki. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Jagiellonia II?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Ząbkovia Ząbki (1,700) and Jagiellonia II (1,773).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ząbkovia Ząbki have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Jagiellonia II have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Warta Sieradz(away) | 4-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Wigry Suwałki(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki(away) | 2-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Widzew II(home) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Olimpia Zambrów(away) | 0-5 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Weszlo(away) | 0-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Pelikan Łowicz(home) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Warta Sieradz(away) | 2-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wigry Suwałki(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Ząbkovia Ząbki win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Jagiellonia II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Ząbkovia Ząbki 0-1 Jagiellonia II | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 27, 2025 | Jagiellonia II 1-5 Ząbkovia Ząbki | III Liga - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Jagiellonia II on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ząbkovia Ząbki score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Jagiellonia II score 1.6 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ząbkovia Ząbki | 1.4 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Jagiellonia II | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ząbkovia Ząbki sit 13th in III Liga - Group 1 (7 points from 5 matches) and Jagiellonia II sit 9th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jagiellonia II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| 13 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Jagiellonia II?
- The Footlab model makes Jagiellonia II the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Ząbkovia Ząbki.
- Where and when is Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Jagiellonia II played?
- Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Jagiellonia II is played on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Dolcanu Ząbki, in the III Liga - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Wigry SuwałkivsWarta Sieradz
- Oct 10, 2026Olimpia ElblągvsMławianka Mława
- Oct 10, 2026Olimpia ZambrówvsLechia T. Mazowiecki
- Oct 10, 2026SwitvsŁKS Łódź II
- Oct 10, 2026Wisła Płock IIvsTroszyn
- Oct 10, 2026Polonia Lidzbark Warm.vsŁomża
- Oct 10, 2026Widzew IIvsWeszlo
- Oct 10, 2026Mazovia Minsk MazowieckivsPelikan Łowicz