Orsha vs Ostrovets FC: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 23Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen Haradski, Orsha
The Footlab model makes Ostrovets FC the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Orsha. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Orsha vs Ostrovets FC?
Ostrovets FC starts as the favourite with a 125-point Elo edge (1,404 vs 1,278).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orsha have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Ostrovets FC have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | BATE II(home) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Uni Minsk(away) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Molodechno-DYuSSh 4(home) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Gomel II(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Shakhter Soligorsk(home) | 3-1 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Smorgon(away) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bumprom(home) | 1-4 | 1. Division |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Minsk II(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Osipovichy(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lida(home) | 1-3 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Orsha win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Ostrovets FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Ostrovets FC 1-2 Orsha | 1. Division |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Orsha 1-3 Ostrovets FC | 1. Division |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Ostrovets FC 6-2 Orsha | 1. Division |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Ostrovets FC 0-5 Orsha | 1. Division |
| May 17, 2024 | Orsha 1-1 Ostrovets FC | 1. Division |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Ostrovets FC 4-4 Orsha | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Orsha score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ostrovets FC score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orsha | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Ostrovets FC | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Orsha sit 15th in 1. Division (22 points from 20 matches) and Ostrovets FC sit 12th (24 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ostrovets FC | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
| 12 | Orsha | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 11 |
| 12 | Ostrovets FC | 21 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 25 | 31 | 24 |
| 15 | Orsha | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 35 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Orsha vs Ostrovets FC?
- The Footlab model makes Ostrovets FC the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Orsha.
- Where and when is Orsha vs Ostrovets FC played?
- Orsha vs Ostrovets FC is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen Haradski, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.