Leones FC vs Barranquilla: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 12Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Alberto Grisales, Rionegro, Antioquia
The Footlab model makes Barranquilla the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Leones FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leones FC vs Barranquilla?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Leones FC (1,430) and Barranquilla (1,469).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leones FC have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Barranquilla have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Real Cartagena(home) | 1-6 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Real Soacha(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Bogota FC(away) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Quindio(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Internacional Palmira(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Real Santander(away) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Depor FC(home) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Junior(home) | 3-3 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Orsomarso(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Leones FC win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Barranquilla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | Barranquilla 3-0 Leones FC | Primera B |
| Aug 4, 2025 | Leones FC 2-2 Barranquilla | Primera B |
| Feb 24, 2025 | Barranquilla 2-3 Leones FC | Primera B |
| Oct 10, 2024 | Leones FC 1-2 Barranquilla | Primera B |
| Feb 16, 2024 | Barranquilla 2-2 Leones FC | Primera B |
| Sep 26, 2023 | Leones FC 2-0 Barranquilla | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Barranquilla vs Leones FC on Mar 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leones FC score 0.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Barranquilla score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leones FC | 0.8 | 1.4 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Barranquilla | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leones FC sit 14th in Primera B (10 points from 15 matches) and Barranquilla sit 7th (20 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leones FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Barranquilla | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 4 | Leones FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 8 |
| 7 | Barranquilla | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 20 |
| 7 | Barranquilla | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 20 |
| 8 | Barranquilla | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 32 | 28 |
| 13 | Leones FC | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 18 |
| 14 | Leones FC | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 10 |
| 14 | Leones FC | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 10 |
| 14 | Barranquilla | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | Barranquilla | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leones FC vs Barranquilla?
- The Footlab model makes Barranquilla the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Leones FC.
- Where and when is Leones FC vs Barranquilla played?
- Leones FC vs Barranquilla is played on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Alberto Grisales, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.