Real Santander vs Union Magdalena: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 12Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Fútbol Erwin O'Neil, San Andrés y Providencia
The Footlab model makes Union Magdalena the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Real Santander. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Santander vs Union Magdalena?
Union Magdalena starts as the favourite with a 295-point Elo edge (1,635 vs 1,339).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Santander have 1 wins, 4 draws and 10 defeats; Union Magdalena have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Barranquilla(home) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Depor FC(away) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Patriotas(home) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Real Cartagena(away) | 1-5 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Santa Fe(away) | 0-2 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Orsomarso(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bogota FC(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| May 21, 2026 | Bogota FC(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Real Santander win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Union Magdalena win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | Union Magdalena 2-0 Real Santander | Primera B |
| May 29, 2025 | Real Santander 0-2 Union Magdalena | Copa Colombia |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Union Magdalena 4-0 Real Santander | Primera B |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Real Santander 2-0 Union Magdalena | Primera B |
| Apr 6, 2022 | Real Santander 1-5 Union Magdalena | Copa Colombia |
| Mar 30, 2022 | Union Magdalena 3-1 Real Santander | Copa Colombia |
Last archived meeting: Union Magdalena vs Real Santander on Mar 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Santander score 0.8 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Union Magdalena score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Santander | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Union Magdalena | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Santander sit 16th in Primera B (7 points from 15 matches) and Union Magdalena sit 3rd (32 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 32 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 32 |
| 5 | Union Magdalena | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 21 | 42 |
| 7 | Real Santander | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 |
| 13 | Real Santander | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 15 | Real Santander | 20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 34 | 13 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 7 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 7 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Santander vs Union Magdalena?
- The Footlab model makes Union Magdalena the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Real Santander.
- Where and when is Real Santander vs Union Magdalena played?
- Real Santander vs Union Magdalena is played on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Fútbol Erwin O'Neil, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.