Bogota FC vs Envigado: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 12Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, Bogotá, D.C.
The Footlab model makes Envigado the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for Bogota FC. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bogota FC vs Envigado?
Envigado starts as the favourite with a 192-point Elo edge (1,640 vs 1,448).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bogota FC have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Envigado have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Popayan(away) | 2-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Real Cartagena(away) | 0-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Leones FC(home) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Internacional Palmira(away) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto(home) | 0-3 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Quindio(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 1-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Once Caldas(home) | 0-3 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Real Soacha(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Bogota FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Envigado win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | Envigado 1-2 Bogota FC | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Envigado vs Bogota FC on Mar 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bogota FC score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Envigado score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogota FC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Envigado | 1.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bogota FC sit 6th in Primera B (23 points from 15 matches) and Envigado sit 2nd (33 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Envigado | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Envigado | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 17 | 33 |
| 3 | Envigado | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 37 | 24 | 48 |
| 4 | Envigado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 14 | 29 |
| 4 | Bogota FC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 6 | Envigado | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Bogota FC | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 23 |
| 6 | Bogota FC | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 23 |
| 6 | Bogota FC | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 22 | 26 | 33 |
| 7 | Bogota FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Bogota FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Envigado | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bogota FC vs Envigado?
- The Footlab model makes Envigado the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for Bogota FC.
- Where and when is Bogota FC vs Envigado played?
- Bogota FC vs Envigado is played on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.