Real Cartagena vs Popayan: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 12Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Olímpico Jaime Morón León, Cartagena de Indias
The Footlab model makes Real Cartagena the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Popayan. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Cartagena vs Popayan?
Real Cartagena starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (1,607 vs 1,491).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Cartagena have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Popayan have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Leones FC(away) | 6-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Bogota FC(home) | 2-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(home) | 0-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Real Soacha(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 30, 2026 | America de Cali(home) | 1-1 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Real Soacha(away) | 1-3 | Primera B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tigres FC(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Quindio(away) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| May 21, 2026 | Bucaramanga(away) | 3-2 | Copa Colombia |
| May 15, 2026 | Deportivo Cali(home) | 1-5 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Real Cartagena win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Popayan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | Popayan 1-1 Real Cartagena | Primera B |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Popayan 0-0 Real Cartagena | Primera B |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Real Cartagena 1-1 Popayan | Primera B |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Popayan 2-2 Real Cartagena | Primera B |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Real Cartagena 3-2 Popayan | Primera B |
| Aug 21, 2024 | Popayan 1-4 Real Cartagena | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Popayan vs Real Cartagena on Mar 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Cartagena score 1.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Popayan score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Cartagena | 1.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Popayan | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Cartagena sit 5th in Primera B (27 points from 17 matches) and Popayan sit 12th (13 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Real Cartagena | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Real Cartagena | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| 3 | Real Cartagena | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 42 | 29 | 47 |
| 5 | Real Cartagena | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 27 |
| 5 | Real Cartagena | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 26 |
| 9 | Popayan | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Popayan | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Popayan | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 20 | 13 |
| 12 | Popayan | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 20 | 13 |
| 14 | Popayan | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Cartagena vs Popayan?
- The Footlab model makes Real Cartagena the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Popayan.
- Where and when is Real Cartagena vs Popayan played?
- Real Cartagena vs Popayan is played on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Olímpico Jaime Morón León, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.