Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: prediction and stats
I LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Bielsko-Biała
The Footlab model makes Podbeskidzie the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki?
Podbeskidzie starts as the favourite with a 117-point Elo edge (1,952 vs 1,835).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Podbeskidzie have 7 wins, 8 draws and 0 defeats; Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Odra Opole(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chrobry Głogów(away) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lechia Gdansk(home) | 2-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Hutnik Kraków(home) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Stal Mielec(away) | 3-3 | I Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Polonia Bytom(away) | 2-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Stal Rzeszów(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Miedz Legnica(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice(home) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lechia Gdansk(away) | 3-0 | I Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Podbeskidzie win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2024 | Podbeskidzie 0-2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | II Liga - East |
| Jul 28, 2024 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3-1 Podbeskidzie | II Liga - East |
Last archived meeting: Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki on Nov 24, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Podbeskidzie score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Podbeskidzie | 1.8 | 1.1 | 3 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Podbeskidzie sit 13th in I Liga (5 points from 5 matches) and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki sit 1st (11 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | Podbeskidzie | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki?
- The Footlab model makes Podbeskidzie the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
- Where and when is Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki played?
- Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the I Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 28, 2026Miedz LegnicavsPolonia Bytom
- Nov 28, 2026Arka GdyniavsRuch Chorzów
- Nov 28, 2026Chrobry GłogówvsUnia Skierniewice
- Nov 28, 2026NiecieczavsStal Rzeszów
- Nov 28, 2026Odra OpolevsPolonia Warszawa
- Nov 28, 2026Puszcza NiepołomicevsStal Mielec
- Nov 28, 2026Warta PoznańvsPogoń Siedlce
- Nov 28, 2026ŁKS ŁódźvsLechia Gdansk