Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec: prediction and stats
I LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach, Niepołomice
The Footlab model makes Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Stal Mielec. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Puszcza Niepołomice (1,836) and Stal Mielec (1,821).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Puszcza Niepołomice have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Stal Mielec have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(home) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Arka Gdynia(away) | 0-3 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Odra Opole(home) | 3-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki(away) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Polonia Warszawa(home) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ŁKS Łódź(away) | 0-4 | I Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Polonia Bytom(home) | 5-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stal Rzeszów(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Podbeskidzie(home) | 3-3 | I Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(away) | 2-1 | I Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Puszcza Niepołomice win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Stal Mielec win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Stal Mielec 1-1 Puszcza Niepołomice | I Liga |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Stal Mielec | I Liga |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Stal Mielec 1-2 Puszcza Niepołomice | Cup |
| May 12, 2025 | Puszcza Niepołomice 2-3 Stal Mielec | Ekstraklasa |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Stal Mielec 2-0 Puszcza Niepołomice | Ekstraklasa |
| Feb 9, 2024 | Stal Mielec 2-1 Puszcza Niepołomice | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Stal Mielec vs Puszcza Niepołomice on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Puszcza Niepołomice score 0.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Stal Mielec score 2.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puszcza Niepołomice | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Stal Mielec | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Puszcza Niepołomice sit 17th in I Liga (3 points from 5 matches) and Stal Mielec sit 7th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Stal Mielec | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 8 |
| 17 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec?
- The Footlab model makes Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Stal Mielec.
- Where and when is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec played?
- Puszcza Niepołomice vs Stal Mielec is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach, in the I Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 28, 2026Miedz LegnicavsPolonia Bytom
- Nov 28, 2026Arka GdyniavsRuch Chorzów
- Nov 28, 2026Chrobry GłogówvsUnia Skierniewice
- Nov 28, 2026NiecieczavsStal Rzeszów
- Nov 28, 2026Odra OpolevsPolonia Warszawa
- Nov 28, 2026PodbeskidzievsPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- Nov 28, 2026Warta PoznańvsPogoń Siedlce
- Nov 28, 2026ŁKS ŁódźvsLechia Gdansk