Where and when is Warta Poznań vs Pogoń Siedlce played?

Warta Poznań vs Pogoń Siedlce is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Enea Stadion, in the I Liga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Warta Poznań vs Pogoń Siedlce: prediction and stats

I LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Enea Stadion, Poznań

Warta Poznań

Pogoń Siedlce

The Footlab model makes Warta Poznań the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Pogoń Siedlce. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Warta Poznań vs Pogoń Siedlce?

Warta Poznań starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (1,884 vs 1,759).

Warta Poznań win54 %

Draw24 %

Pogoń Siedlce win22 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Warta Poznań have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Pogoń Siedlce have 4, 3 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Warta Poznań
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Chrobry Głogów(away)	1-0	I Liga
Aug 15, 2026	Odra Opole(away)	1-3	I Liga
Aug 9, 2026	Nieciecza(away)	2-1	I Liga
Aug 5, 2026	Resovia Rzeszów(home)	0-1	Cup
Jul 31, 2026	Lechia Gdansk(away)	3-0	I Liga

Pogoń Siedlce
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Lechia Gdansk(away)	0-1	I Liga
Aug 15, 2026	Polonia Warszawa(home)	1-0	I Liga
Aug 7, 2026	Polonia Bytom(away)	2-2	I Liga
Aug 1, 2026	Nieciecza(home)	1-2	I Liga
Jul 25, 2026	ŁKS Łódź(home)	1-1	I Liga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Warta Poznań win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Pogoń Siedlce win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 25, 2025	Pogoń Siedlce 2-1 Warta Poznań	I Liga
Nov 24, 2024	Warta Poznań 2-1 Pogoń Siedlce	I Liga

Last archived meeting: Pogoń Siedlce vs Warta Poznań on May 25, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Warta Poznań score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Pogoń Siedlce score 1.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Warta Poznań	1.7	1.6	5	9/15	10/15
Pogoń Siedlce	1.1	1.8	3	8/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Warta Poznań sit 6th in I Liga (9 points from 5 matches) and Pogoń Siedlce sit 14th (5 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Warta Poznań	5	3	0	2	10	8	9
14	Pogoń Siedlce	5	1	2	2	5	6	5

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Warta Poznań vs Pogoń Siedlce?: The Footlab model makes Warta Poznań the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Pogoń Siedlce.
Where and when is Warta Poznań vs Pogoń Siedlce played?: Warta Poznań vs Pogoń Siedlce is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Enea Stadion, in the I Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.