Arka Gdynia vs Ruch Chorzów: prediction and stats
I LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Gdynia
The Footlab model makes Arka Gdynia the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Ruch Chorzów. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arka Gdynia vs Ruch Chorzów?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Arka Gdynia (1,900) and Ruch Chorzów (1,862).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arka Gdynia have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Ruch Chorzów have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Miedz Legnica(away) | 0-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice(home) | 3-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(away) | 0-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stal Rzeszów(home) | 4-0 | I Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Odra Opole(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Stal Rzeszów(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Lechia Gdansk(home) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Polonia Warszawa(away) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Miedz Legnica(home) | 0-2 | I Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Nieciecza(away) | 0-2 | I Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Arka Gdynia win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Ruch Chorzów win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | Ruch Chorzów 0-1 Arka Gdynia | I Liga |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Arka Gdynia 1-1 Ruch Chorzów | I Liga |
| May 13, 2023 | Arka Gdynia 0-2 Ruch Chorzów | I Liga |
| Oct 16, 2022 | Ruch Chorzów 2-4 Arka Gdynia | I Liga |
Last archived meeting: Ruch Chorzów vs Arka Gdynia on Mar 8, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Arka Gdynia score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Ruch Chorzów score 1.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arka Gdynia | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Ruch Chorzów | 1.2 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arka Gdynia sit 5th in I Liga (9 points from 5 matches) and Ruch Chorzów sit 10th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arka Gdynia | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Ruch Chorzów | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arka Gdynia vs Ruch Chorzów?
- The Footlab model makes Arka Gdynia the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Ruch Chorzów.
- Where and when is Arka Gdynia vs Ruch Chorzów played?
- Arka Gdynia vs Ruch Chorzów is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the I Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 28, 2026Miedz LegnicavsPolonia Bytom
- Nov 28, 2026Chrobry GłogówvsUnia Skierniewice
- Nov 28, 2026NiecieczavsStal Rzeszów
- Nov 28, 2026Odra OpolevsPolonia Warszawa
- Nov 28, 2026PodbeskidzievsPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- Nov 28, 2026Puszcza NiepołomicevsStal Mielec
- Nov 28, 2026Warta PoznańvsPogoń Siedlce
- Nov 28, 2026ŁKS ŁódźvsLechia Gdansk