Podhale Nowy Targ vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: prediction and stats
CupRound of 64Kick-off on September 1, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Nowy Targ
The Footlab model makes Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Podhale Nowy Targ. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Podhale Nowy Targ vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Podhale Nowy Targ (1,853) and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (1,835).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Podhale Nowy Targ have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Resovia Rzeszów(home) | 1-1 | II Liga - East |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Górnik Łęczna(away) | 2-5 | II Liga - East |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hutnik Kraków(home) | 2-5 | II Liga - East |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Chojniczanka Chojnice(home) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sokół Kleczew(away) | 0-0 | II Liga - East |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Polonia Bytom(away) | 2-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Stal Rzeszów(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Miedz Legnica(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice(home) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lechia Gdansk(away) | 3-0 | I Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Podhale Nowy Targ score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Podhale Nowy Targ | 1.9 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Podhale Nowy Targ vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki?
- The Footlab model makes Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Podhale Nowy Targ.
- Where and when is Podhale Nowy Targ vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki played?
- Podhale Nowy Targ vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is played on September 1, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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- Sep 1, 2026Chemik BydgoszczvsPiast Gliwice
- Sep 1, 2026Kluczevia StargardvsPogoń Siedlce
- Sep 1, 2026Siarka TarnobrzegvsZaglebie Lubin
- Sep 1, 2026Wisła Płock IIvsPuszcza Niepołomice
- Sep 1, 2026Odra OpolevsWisla Krakow
- Sep 1, 2026KluczborkvsLechia Gdansk
- Sep 1, 2026Stal RzeszówvsPodbeskidzie