Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec: prediction and stats
I LigaRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Znicza (MZOS), Pruszków
The Footlab model makes Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Stal Mielec. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (1,835) and Stal Mielec (1,821).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Stal Mielec have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Polonia Bytom(away) | 2-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Stal Rzeszów(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Miedz Legnica(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice(home) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lechia Gdansk(away) | 3-0 | I Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ŁKS Łódź(away) | 0-4 | I Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Polonia Bytom(home) | 5-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stal Rzeszów(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Podbeskidzie(home) | 3-3 | I Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(away) | 2-1 | I Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Stal Mielec win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1-2 Stal Mielec | I Liga |
| Sep 19, 2025 | Stal Mielec 1-2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | I Liga |
Last archived meeting: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec on Apr 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Stal Mielec score 2.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Stal Mielec | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki sit 1st in I Liga (11 points from 5 matches) and Stal Mielec sit 7th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stal Mielec | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec?
- The Footlab model makes Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Stal Mielec.
- Where and when is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec played?
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Znicza (MZOS), in the I Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 31, 2026Miedz LegnicavsNieciecza
- Oct 31, 2026Lechia GdanskvsUnia Skierniewice
- Oct 31, 2026Chrobry GłogówvsArka Gdynia
- Oct 31, 2026PodbeskidzievsWarta Poznań
- Oct 31, 2026ŁKS ŁódźvsPolonia Warszawa
- Oct 31, 2026Ruch ChorzówvsPogoń Siedlce
- Oct 31, 2026Stal RzeszówvsPuszcza Niepołomice
- Oct 31, 2026Polonia BytomvsOdra Opole