Polonia Środa vs Flota Świnoujście: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 2Group II - 33Kick-off on May 22, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej, Środa Wielkopolska
The Footlab model makes Polonia Środa the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Flota Świnoujście. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Polonia Środa vs Flota Świnoujście?
Polonia Środa starts as the favourite with a 151-point Elo edge (1,873 vs 1,722).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Polonia Środa have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Flota Świnoujście have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lipno Stęszew(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Stargard Szczeciński(home) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Chemik Bydgoszcz(away) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Victoria Września(home) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bałtyk Koszalin(away) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chemik Bydgoszcz(away) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Victoria Września(home) | 5-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bałtyk Koszalin(away) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kotwica Kórnik(home) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kalisz(home) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Polonia Środa win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Flota Świnoujście win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | Polonia Środa 6-2 Flota Świnoujście | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Flota Świnoujście 0-0 Polonia Środa | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Polonia Środa 3-0 Flota Świnoujście | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Flota Świnoujście 1-1 Polonia Środa | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Flota Świnoujście 3-0 Polonia Środa | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Sep 1, 2023 | Polonia Środa 1-1 Flota Świnoujście | III Liga - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Polonia Środa vs Flota Świnoujście on Apr 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Polonia Środa score 1.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Flota Świnoujście score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Środa | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Flota Świnoujście | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Polonia Środa sit 1st in III Liga - Group 2 (15 points from 5 matches) and Flota Świnoujście sit 5th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Flota Świnoujście | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Polonia Środa vs Flota Świnoujście?
- The Footlab model makes Polonia Środa the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Flota Świnoujście.
- Where and when is Polonia Środa vs Flota Świnoujście played?
- Polonia Środa vs Flota Świnoujście is played on May 22, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej, in the III Liga - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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