Flota Świnoujście vs Polonia Środa: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 2Group II - 16Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Świnoujście
The Footlab model makes Polonia Środa the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Flota Świnoujście. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Flota Świnoujście vs Polonia Środa?
Polonia Środa starts as the favourite with a 151-point Elo edge (1,872 vs 1,722).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Flota Świnoujście have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Polonia Środa have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chemik Bydgoszcz(away) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Victoria Września(home) | 5-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bałtyk Koszalin(away) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kotwica Kórnik(home) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kalisz(home) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lipno Stęszew(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Stargard Szczeciński(home) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Chemik Bydgoszcz(away) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Victoria Września(home) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bałtyk Koszalin(away) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Flota Świnoujście win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Polonia Środa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | Polonia Środa 6-2 Flota Świnoujście | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Flota Świnoujście 0-0 Polonia Środa | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Polonia Środa 3-0 Flota Świnoujście | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Flota Świnoujście 1-1 Polonia Środa | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Flota Świnoujście 3-0 Polonia Środa | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Sep 1, 2023 | Polonia Środa 1-1 Flota Świnoujście | III Liga - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Polonia Środa vs Flota Świnoujście on Apr 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Flota Świnoujście score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Polonia Środa score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flota Świnoujście | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Polonia Środa | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Flota Świnoujście sit 5th in III Liga - Group 2 (10 points from 5 matches) and Polonia Środa sit 1st (15 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Flota Świnoujście | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Flota Świnoujście vs Polonia Środa?
- The Footlab model makes Polonia Środa the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Flota Świnoujście.
- Where and when is Flota Świnoujście vs Polonia Środa played?
- Flota Świnoujście vs Polonia Środa is played on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the III Liga - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 7, 2026Chemik BydgoszczvsElana Toruń
- Nov 7, 2026Stargard SzczecińskivsNoteć Czarnków
- Nov 7, 2026KaliszvsLuzino
- Nov 7, 2026Bałtyk KoszalinvsKluczevia Stargard
- Nov 7, 2026Gedania GdanskvsGrom Nowy Staw
- Nov 7, 2026Victoria WrześniavsWda Świecie
- Nov 7, 2026Kotwica KórnikvsLech Poznań II
- Nov 7, 2026Lipno StęszewvsUnia Swarzędz