Popayan vs Real Santander: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 9Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero, Santiago de Cali
The Footlab model makes Popayan the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 14% for Real Santander. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Popayan vs Real Santander?
Popayan starts as the favourite with a 152-point Elo edge (1,491 vs 1,339).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Popayan have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Real Santander have 0, 4 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Real Soacha(away) | 1-3 | Primera B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tigres FC(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Quindio(away) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| May 21, 2026 | Bucaramanga(away) | 3-2 | Copa Colombia |
| May 15, 2026 | Deportivo Cali(home) | 1-5 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Barranquilla(home) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Depor FC(away) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Patriotas(home) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Real Cartagena(away) | 1-5 | Primera B |
| May 24, 2026 | Deportivo Cali(home) | 1-2 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Popayan win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Real Santander win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Real Santander 0-3 Popayan | Copa Colombia |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Real Santander 1-1 Popayan | Primera B |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Real Santander 2-2 Popayan | Primera B |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Popayan 0-1 Real Santander | Primera B |
| Sep 23, 2024 | Popayan 4-3 Real Santander | Primera B |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Real Santander 2-3 Popayan | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Real Santander vs Popayan on May 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Popayan score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Real Santander score 0.7 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Popayan | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Real Santander | 0.7 | 2.5 | 0 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Popayan sit 12th in Primera B (13 points from 15 matches) and Real Santander sit 16th (7 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Popayan | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Popayan | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Real Santander | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 3 |
| 12 | Popayan | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 20 | 13 |
| 12 | Popayan | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 20 | 13 |
| 13 | Real Santander | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 14 | Popayan | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 17 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 7 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 7 |
| 16 | Real Santander | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Popayan vs Real Santander?
- The Footlab model makes Popayan the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 14% for Real Santander.
- Where and when is Popayan vs Real Santander played?
- Popayan vs Real Santander is played on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.