Orsomarso vs Depor FC: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 9Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata, Barrancabermeja
The Footlab model makes Orsomarso the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 14% for Depor FC. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Orsomarso vs Depor FC?
Orsomarso starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (1,513 vs 1,349).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orsomarso have 4 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats; Depor FC have 1, 5 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Real Soacha(home) | 2-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Patriotas(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Union Magdalena(away) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Barranquilla(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| May 20, 2026 | Fortaleza FC(away) | 1-1 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Patriotas(away) | 0-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Real Santander(home) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Barranquilla(away) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(home) | 0-2 | Primera B |
| May 30, 2026 | Millonarios(home) | 1-8 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Orsomarso win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Depor FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | Depor FC 1-1 Orsomarso | Primera B |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Depor FC 1-0 Orsomarso | Primera B |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Orsomarso 0-0 Depor FC | Primera B |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Orsomarso 1-0 Depor FC | Primera B |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Depor FC 0-2 Orsomarso | Primera B |
| Jul 29, 2023 | Depor FC 0-1 Orsomarso | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Depor FC vs Orsomarso on Mar 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Orsomarso score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Depor FC score 0.9 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orsomarso | 1.0 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 2/15 |
| Depor FC | 0.9 | 2.4 | 0 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Orsomarso sit 10th in Primera B (17 points from 15 matches) and Depor FC sit 15th (9 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Orsomarso | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Orsomarso | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 11 | Depor FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 11 | Orsomarso | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 25 |
| 15 | Depor FC | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 23 | 9 |
| 15 | Depor FC | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 23 | 9 |
| 15 | Depor FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 16 | Depor FC | 19 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 31 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Orsomarso vs Depor FC?
- The Footlab model makes Orsomarso the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 14% for Depor FC.
- Where and when is Orsomarso vs Depor FC played?
- Orsomarso vs Depor FC is played on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.