Real Soacha vs Union Magdalena: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 9Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Union Magdalena the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Real Soacha. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Soacha vs Union Magdalena?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Real Soacha (1,596) and Union Magdalena (1,635).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Soacha have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; Union Magdalena have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Leones FC(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Popayan(home) | 3-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Real Cartagena(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Envigado(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| May 26, 2026 | Águilas Doradas(home) | 2-2 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Santa Fe(away) | 0-2 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Orsomarso(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bogota FC(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| May 21, 2026 | Bogota FC(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| May 17, 2026 | Barranquilla(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Real Soacha win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Union Magdalena win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | Union Magdalena 1-1 Real Soacha | Primera B |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Union Magdalena 2-0 Real Soacha | Primera B |
| Oct 28, 2024 | Real Soacha 1-0 Union Magdalena | Primera B |
| Sep 11, 2024 | Union Magdalena 1-0 Real Soacha | Primera B |
| Apr 4, 2024 | Real Soacha 1-2 Union Magdalena | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Union Magdalena vs Real Soacha on Mar 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Soacha score 1.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Union Magdalena score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Soacha | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Union Magdalena | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Soacha sit 13th in Primera B (13 points from 15 matches) and Union Magdalena sit 3rd (32 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 32 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 32 |
| 5 | Union Magdalena | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 20 | 42 |
| 5 | Real Soacha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Real Soacha | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 12 | Real Soacha | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 19 | 23 | 18 |
| 13 | Real Soacha | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 13 |
| 13 | Real Soacha | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 13 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Soacha vs Union Magdalena?
- The Footlab model makes Union Magdalena the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Real Soacha.
- Where and when is Real Soacha vs Union Magdalena played?
- Real Soacha vs Union Magdalena is played on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC), in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.