Portsmouth vs Watford: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 23Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Fratton Park, Portsmouth
The Footlab model makes Portsmouth the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Watford. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Portsmouth vs Watford?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Portsmouth (1,856) and Watford (1,815).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Portsmouth have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Watford have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lincoln(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | QPR(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | SV Darmstadt 98(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Farnborough(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 1-5 | League Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Southampton(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Portsmouth win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Watford win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | Watford 1-1 Portsmouth | Championship |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Portsmouth 2-2 Watford | Championship |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Portsmouth 1-0 Watford | Championship |
| Dec 26, 2024 | Watford 2-1 Portsmouth | Championship |
| Jan 2, 2012 | Portsmouth 2-0 Watford | Championship |
| Nov 19, 2011 | Watford 2-0 Portsmouth | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Watford vs Portsmouth on Jan 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Portsmouth score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Watford score 0.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Watford | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Portsmouth sit 10th in Championship (3 points from 2 matches) and Watford sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Watford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Portsmouth vs Watford?
- The Footlab model makes Portsmouth the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Watford.
- Where and when is Portsmouth vs Watford played?
- Portsmouth vs Watford is played on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Fratton Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.