Puebla vs Leon: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla
The Footlab model makes Leon the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Puebla. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Puebla vs Leon?
Leon starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (1,895 vs 1,741).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Puebla have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Leon have 11, 0 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Santos Laguna(home) | 3-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 18, 2026 | CF Pachuca(away) | 3-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | San Diego(away) | 2-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Austin(away) | 0-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Portland Timbers(away) | 2-5 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Necaxa(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 3-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Nashville SC(away) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Puebla win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Leon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Puebla 0-1 Leon | Liga MX |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Leon 1-2 Puebla | Liga MX |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Leon 1-0 Puebla | Liga MX |
| Jul 17, 2024 | Puebla 2-2 Leon | Liga MX |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Leon 2-1 Puebla | Liga MX |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Puebla 5-4 Leon | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Puebla score 1.1 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Leon score 2.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puebla | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Leon | 2.2 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Puebla sit 11th in Liga MX (4 points from 3 matches) and Leon sit 14th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Puebla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| 8 | Leon | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 | Leon | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Puebla vs Leon?
- The Footlab model makes Leon the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Puebla.
- Where and when is Puebla vs Leon played?
- Puebla vs Leon is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Cuauhtémoc, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.