Puebla vs Leon: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla
The Footlab AI model makes Leon the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Puebla. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leon wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Puebla vs Leon?
Leon starts as the favourite with a 169-point Elo edge (1,927 vs 1,757).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Puebla vs Leon
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Puebla
4-2-3-1- 19I. Maestro Puch
- 27B. Garnica
- 24A. Organista
- 22C. Baltazar
- 21S. Sanabria
- 10M. Tomás
- 5F. Almada
- 7F. Monárrez
- 4J. Vargas
- 20J. Pachuca
- 28R. Gutiérrez
Leon
4-1-4-1- 27D. Cambindo
- 16J. Cortizo
- 29J. Rodríguez
- 13D. Arcila
- 203J. Lara
- 11I. Díaz
- 7I. Moreno
- 14J. Romaña
- 3Juan José Guevara Possu
- 5S. Vegas
- 23Ó. García
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 07:50 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Puebla have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Leon have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Tigres UANL(away) | 0-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Toluca(home) | 0-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Necaxa(away) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Club America(away) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Club Queretaro(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Atletico San Luis(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Sep 11, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(away) | 1-3 | Liga MX |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Club America(home) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Puebla wins, 1 draw, 3 Leon wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Puebla 0-1 Leon | Liga MX |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Leon 1-2 Puebla | Liga MX |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Leon 1-0 Puebla | Liga MX |
| Jul 17, 2024 | Puebla 2-2 Leon | Liga MX |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Leon 2-1 Puebla | Liga MX |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Puebla 5-4 Leon | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Puebla score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Leon score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puebla | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Leon | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Puebla sit 9th in Liga MX (14 points from 10 matches) and Leon sit 5th (17 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Leon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 17 |
| 9 | Puebla | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
A question about Puebla vs Leon?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Puebla vs Leon?
- The Footlab AI model makes Leon the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Puebla.
- Where and when is Puebla vs Leon played?
- Puebla vs Leon is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Cuauhtémoc, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.