CF Pachuca vs Necaxa: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 11Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto
The Footlab model makes CF Pachuca the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Necaxa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CF Pachuca vs Necaxa?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate CF Pachuca (1,938) and Necaxa (1,848).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CF Pachuca have 7 wins, 0 draws and 8 defeats; Necaxa have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Puebla(home) | 2-3 | Liga MX |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Columbus Crew(away) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Leon(away) | 0-1 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leon(home) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | New York City FC(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Chicago Fire(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Toluca(away) | 1-3 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 CF Pachuca win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Necaxa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | CF Pachuca 2-1 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Necaxa 0-1 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Necaxa 3-5 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| Nov 3, 2024 | CF Pachuca 6-2 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| May 6, 2024 | CF Pachuca 2-1 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Necaxa 1-1 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
CF Pachuca score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Necaxa score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Pachuca | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Necaxa | 1.4 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CF Pachuca sit 13th in Liga MX (3 points from 3 matches) and Necaxa sit 8th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Necaxa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | Necaxa | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | CF Pachuca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CF Pachuca vs Necaxa?
- The Footlab model makes CF Pachuca the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Necaxa.
- Where and when is CF Pachuca vs Necaxa played?
- CF Pachuca vs Necaxa is played on October 11, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Hidalgo, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.