Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 11Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
The Footlab model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Atlas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Guadalajara Chivas starts as the favourite with a 124-point Elo edge (1,994 vs 1,869).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlas have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Guadalajara Chivas have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tigres UANL(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Columbus Crew(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Club Tijuana(home) | 5-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Santos Laguna(away) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Atlas win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Guadalajara Chivas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Atlas 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Atlas 1-2 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Atlas 0-0 Guadalajara Chivas | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas 4-1 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Atlas 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Atlas 0-0 Guadalajara Chivas | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas on Mar 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atlas score 1.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Guadalajara Chivas score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atlas sit 9th in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Guadalajara Chivas sit 12th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atlas | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 9 | Atlas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 12 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
- The Footlab model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Atlas.
- Where and when is Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas played?
- Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas is played on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Jalisco, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.