Match

Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas: prediction and stats

Liga MXApertura - 11Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara

AtlasGuadalajara Chivas

The Footlab AI model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Atlas. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guadalajara Chivas wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?

Guadalajara Chivas starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (2,013 vs 1,870).

32%27%41%
Atlas winDrawGuadalajara Chivas win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Atlas

3-4-2-1
  1. 9F. Monzón
  1. 10Luís Esteves
  2. 15Paulo Ramírez
  3. 16M. Valenzuela
  4. 18E. Montiel
  5. 3J. Sánchez
  6. 8R. Mmaee
  1. 44J. Purata
  2. 28M. Capasso
  3. 13G. Aguirre
  1. 12C. Vargas

Guadalajara Chivas

3-4-2-1
  1. 17R. Marín
  1. 28R. González
  2. 6O. Govea
  3. 30Santiago Sandoval
  4. 46R. Alvarado
  5. 14H. Camberos
  6. 11B. Gutiérrez
  1. 23D. Aguirre
  2. 7L. Romo
  3. 3D. Campillo
  1. 1J. Rangel

Computed on October 8, 2026 at 07:05 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlas have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Guadalajara Chivas have 7, 4 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Atlas
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 26, 2026Club Tijuana(away)3-2Liga MX
Sep 19, 2026U.N.A.M. - Pumas(home)1-1Liga MX
Sep 12, 2026Toluca(away)2-5Liga MX
Sep 6, 2026Atlante FC(home)1-1Liga MX
Aug 29, 2026Club Queretaro(home)1-3Liga MX
Guadalajara Chivas
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 5, 2026Club America(home)2-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 26, 2026Club Queretaro(home)0-2Liga MX
Sep 20, 2026Club America(away)2-2Liga MX
Sep 14, 2026U.N.A.M. - Pumas(home)3-0Liga MX
Sep 5, 2026Atletico San Luis(away)3-0Liga MX

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Atlas wins, 3 draws, 3 Guadalajara Chivas wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 30, 2026Atlas 0-1 Guadalajara ChivasFriendlies Clubs
Mar 8, 2026Atlas 1-2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
Jan 4, 2026Atlas 0-0 Guadalajara ChivasFriendlies Clubs
Oct 26, 2025Guadalajara Chivas 4-1 AtlasLiga MX
Apr 20, 2025Atlas 1-1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
Dec 28, 2024Atlas 0-0 Guadalajara ChivasFriendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas on Mar 30, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Atlas score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Guadalajara Chivas score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Atlas1.31.639/157/15
Guadalajara Chivas1.51.057/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Atlas sit 6th in Liga MX (17 points from 10 matches) and Guadalajara Chivas sit 3rd (18 points from 10 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Guadalajara Chivas10532171018
6Atlas10523161717

A question about Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
The Footlab AI model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Atlas.
Where and when is Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas played?
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas is played on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Jalisco, in the Liga MX.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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