Tigres UANL vs Toluca: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León, San Nicolás de los Garza
The Footlab model makes Tigres UANL the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Toluca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Tigres UANL (1,976) and Toluca (2,062).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tigres UANL have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Toluca have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atlas(away) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps(home) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(home) | 0-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Salt Lake(home) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Club Queretaro(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlante FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Tigres UANL win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Toluca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Toluca 1-1 Tigres UANL | CONCACAF Champions League |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Tigres UANL 0-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Toluca 2-1 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Tigres UANL 1-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Toluca 3-4 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| May 18, 2025 | Toluca 3-0 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Toluca vs Tigres UANL on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tigres UANL score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Toluca score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Toluca | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tigres UANL sit 16th in Liga MX (1 points from 3 matches) and Toluca sit 3rd (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 4 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
- The Footlab model makes Tigres UANL the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Toluca.
- Where and when is Tigres UANL vs Toluca played?
- Tigres UANL vs Toluca is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.