Tigres UANL vs Toluca: result 3-2 and analysis
Liga MXApertura - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León, San Nicolás de los Garza
Full time
What was the result of Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
Tigres UANL won 3-2 on October 10, 2026.
Goalscorers
- 6′J. BrunettaTigres UANL
- 37′G. MartínezTigres UANL
- 42′PaulinhoToluca
- 54′F. ViñasToluca
- 60′J. BrunettaTigres UANL
What had the model predicted before the match?
Before kick-off, the Footlab AI model gave a Toluca win at 40%: prediction missed. Most likely score announced: 1-1. Actual score: 3-2.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Official lineup for Tigres UANL vs Toluca
The starting elevens fielded at kick-off.
Tigres UANL
4-2-3-1- 22G. Martínez
- 9E. Gómez
- 11J. Brunetta
- 16D. Lainez
- 5C. Araújo
- 8F. Gorriarán
- 19M. Laínez
- 33R. Guerrero
- 28Joaquim
- 15A. Franco
- 1N. Guzmán
Toluca
4-2-3-1- 26Paulinho
- 9A. Vega
- 8N. Castro
- 11Helinho
- 35É. Gutiérrez
- 5F. Romero
- 20J. Gallardo
- 6F. Pereira
- 4B. Méndez
- 17B. García
- 22L. García
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tigres UANL have 2 wins, 8 draws and 5 defeats; Toluca have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Puebla(home) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Sep 19, 2026 | FC Juarez(away) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Monterrey(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Necaxa(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Santos Laguna(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Monterrey(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 3-3 | Liga MX |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Santos Laguna(home) | 2-3 | Liga MX |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Puebla(away) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atlas(home) | 5-2 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Tigres UANL wins, 2 draws, 2 Toluca wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Toluca 1-1 Tigres UANL | CONCACAF Champions League |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Tigres UANL 0-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Toluca 2-1 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Tigres UANL 1-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Toluca 3-4 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| May 18, 2025 | Toluca 3-0 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Toluca vs Tigres UANL on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tigres UANL score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Toluca score 2.2 and concede 0.9.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | 0.9 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Toluca | 2.2 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tigres UANL sit 15th in Liga MX (15 points from 14 matches) and Toluca sit 5th (23 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 19 | 23 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 15 |
A question about Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy