Purmersteijn vs Zwaluw VFC: prediction and stats
KNVB Beker1st Preliminary RoundKick-off on September 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Purmersteijn, Purmerend
The Footlab model makes Purmersteijn the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Zwaluw VFC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Purmersteijn vs Zwaluw VFC?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Purmersteijn (1,720) and Zwaluw VFC (1,693).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 6 matches in all competitions, Purmersteijn have 2 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats; Zwaluw VFC have 0, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sportlust '46(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | VV Scherpenzeel(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Jul 5, 2025 | FC Volendam(home) | 1-7 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Sportlust '46(home) | 0-2 | KNVB Beker |
| Jul 19, 2023 | ADO '20(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2024 | Rijnvogels(home) | 1-4 | KNVB Beker |
| Sep 4, 2024 | EVV(away) | 0-0 | KNVB Beker |
| Aug 12, 2023 | VV Scherpenzeel(home) | 1-5 | KNVB Beker |
How many goals should we expect?
Purmersteijn score 1.2 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 6; Zwaluw VFC score 0.7 and concede 3.0. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purmersteijn | 1.2 | 2.5 | 0 | 4/6 | 4/6 |
| Zwaluw VFC | 0.7 | 3.0 | 1 | 2/3 | 2/3 |
Over the last 6 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Purmersteijn vs Zwaluw VFC?
- The Footlab model makes Purmersteijn the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Zwaluw VFC.
- Where and when is Purmersteijn vs Zwaluw VFC played?
- Purmersteijn vs Zwaluw VFC is played on September 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Purmersteijn, in the KNVB Beker.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.