Real Ávila vs Atlético Astorga: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 9Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez, Ávila
The Footlab model makes Real Ávila the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Atlético Astorga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Ávila vs Atlético Astorga?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Real Ávila (1,889) and Atlético Astorga (1,888).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Ávila have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Atlético Astorga have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Atlético Tordesillas(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Unionistas de Salamanca(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruña II(home) | 0-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Racing Santander II(away) | 1-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Gimnástica Segoviana(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | La Bañeza(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruña II(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | UD Ourense(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sarriana(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Real Ávila win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Atlético Astorga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Real Ávila 2-4 Atlético Astorga | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Atlético Astorga 1-3 Real Ávila | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Real Ávila 2-1 Atlético Astorga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Atlético Astorga 0-1 Real Ávila | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Jan 14, 2023 | Atlético Astorga 0-0 Real Ávila | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 11, 2022 | Real Ávila 3-3 Atlético Astorga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
Last archived meeting: Real Ávila vs Atlético Astorga on Feb 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Ávila score 1.6 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético Astorga score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Ávila | 1.6 | 1.7 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Atlético Astorga | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Ávila vs Atlético Astorga?
- The Footlab model makes Real Ávila the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Atlético Astorga.
- Where and when is Real Ávila vs Atlético Astorga played?
- Real Ávila vs Atlético Astorga is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.