Real Refineros vs Halcones Negros: prediction and stats
Liga Premier Serie AApertura - 7Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Real Refineros the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Halcones Negros. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Refineros vs Halcones Negros?
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Refineros vs Halcones Negros?
- The Footlab model makes Real Refineros the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Halcones Negros.
- Where and when is Real Refineros vs Halcones Negros played?
- Real Refineros vs Halcones Negros is played on October 10, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC), in the Liga Premier Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026AcatlanvsMineros de Fresnillo
- Oct 10, 2026Cañoneros MarinavsCalor de San Pedro
- Oct 10, 2026La Tribu de Cd. JuarezvsFC Santiago
- Oct 11, 2026Delfines CoatzacoalcosvsArtesanos Metepec
- Oct 11, 2026Vaqueros ReynosavsAtlético Saltillo
- Oct 11, 2026AcambarovsCiervos
- Oct 11, 2026GuerrerosvsHéroes de Zaci
- Oct 11, 2026Real ApodacavsCorrecaminos UAT II