Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
The Footlab AI model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Real Sociedad. The most likely score is 1-1. If Athletic Club wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
On Elo ratings, Athletic Club has 2,024 points and Real Sociedad 2,034.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Athletic Club
4-2-3-1- 9I. Williams
- 8Oihan Sancet
- 16Ruíz de Galarreta
- 23Robert Navarro
- 10Nico Williams
- 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
- 17Yuri
- 14Aymeric Laporte
- 12Jesús Areso
- 4Aitor Paredes
- 1Unai Simón
Real Sociedad
4-4-2- 10Mikel Oyarzabal
- 24L. Sučić
- 18Carlos Soler
- 11Gonçalo Guedes
- 21Y. Herrera
- 12J. Ochieng
- 17Sergio Gómez
- 2J. Aramburu
- 34Luken Beitia
- 6Jon Martín
- 1Álex Remiro
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:56 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athletic Club have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Real Sociedad have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Elche(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 0-2 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 0-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Elche(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Athletic Club win, 2 draws, 3 Real Sociedad wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Real Sociedad 1-0 Athletic Club | Copa del Rey |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Athletic Club 0-1 Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Athletic Club 1-1 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Real Sociedad 3-2 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| May 4, 2025 | Real Sociedad 0-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Athletic Club 1-0 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club on Mar 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Athletic Club score 2.2 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Real Sociedad score 1.4 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 2.2 | 1.0 | 8 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
| Real Sociedad | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Athletic Club sit 10th in La Liga (8 points from 6 matches) and Real Sociedad sit 8th (10 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 10 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
A question about Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
- The Footlab AI model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Real Sociedad.
- Where and when is Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad played?
- Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at San Mamés Barria, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.