Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
The Footlab model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Real Sociedad. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Athletic Club (2,053) and Real Sociedad (2,099).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athletic Club have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Real Sociedad have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Zaragoza(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burgos(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | 1. FC Köln(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Athletic Club win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Real Sociedad win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Real Sociedad 1-0 Athletic Club | Copa del Rey |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Athletic Club 0-1 Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Athletic Club 1-1 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Real Sociedad 3-2 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| May 4, 2025 | Real Sociedad 0-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Athletic Club 1-0 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club on Mar 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Athletic Club score 2.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Real Sociedad score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 2.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Real Sociedad | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Athletic Club sit 18th in La Liga (0 points from 1 matches) and Real Sociedad sit 17th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Athletic Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
- The Footlab model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Real Sociedad.
- Where and when is Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad played?
- Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at San Mamés Barria, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.