Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 12Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Gigante de Arroyito, Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe
The Footlab model makes Rosario Central the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Independ. Rivadavia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Rosario Central (1,954) and Independ. Rivadavia (1,972).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rosario Central have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Independ. Rivadavia have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Barracas Central(away) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Corinthians(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Aldosivi(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 2, 2026 | River Plate(away) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Independiente(away) | 0-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fluminense(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Belgrano Cordoba(away) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Rosario Central win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Independ. Rivadavia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia 2-0 Rosario Central | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Nov 5, 2024 | Independ. Rivadavia 1-1 Rosario Central | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Feb 8, 2024 | Rosario Central 1-0 Independ. Rivadavia | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Apr 8, 2013 | Independ. Rivadavia 1-3 Rosario Central | Primera Nacional |
| Oct 8, 2012 | Rosario Central 2-2 Independ. Rivadavia | Primera Nacional |
| Apr 10, 2012 | Rosario Central 1-0 Independ. Rivadavia | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Independ. Rivadavia vs Rosario Central on Mar 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rosario Central score 1.1 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Independ. Rivadavia score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosario Central | 1.1 | 0.8 | 6 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Independ. Rivadavia | 1.4 | 1.0 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rosario Central sit 4th in Liga Profesional Argentina (28 points from 16 matches) and Independ. Rivadavia sit 1st (34 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 34 |
| 4 | Rosario Central | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 28 |
| 4 | Rosario Central | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Independ. Rivadavia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia?
- The Footlab model makes Rosario Central the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Independ. Rivadavia.
- Where and when is Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia played?
- Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Oct 11, 2026TigrevsBanfield
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