Samgurali vs Gagra: prediction and stats
Erovnuli LigaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, Martvili
The Footlab model makes Samgurali the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Gagra. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Samgurali vs Gagra?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Samgurali (1,619) and Gagra (1,594).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Samgurali have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Gagra have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Spaeri(away) | 4-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(home) | 0-4 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Meshakhte(away) | 2-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Meshakhte(home) | 1-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | WIT Georgia(away) | 2-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rustavi(away) | 0-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spaeri(home) | 1-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(away) | 2-2 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gareji(away) | 4-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Samtskhe Akhaltsikhe(away) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Samgurali win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Gagra win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | Gagra 0-0 Samgurali | Erovnuli Liga |
| May 2, 2026 | Samgurali 2-0 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Gagra 0-1 Samgurali | Erovnuli Liga |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Samgurali 1-1 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Gagra 2-0 Samgurali | Erovnuli Liga |
| May 7, 2025 | Samgurali 0-2 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Samgurali score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gagra score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samgurali | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Gagra | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Samgurali sit 6th in Erovnuli Liga (31 points from 22 matches) and Gagra sit 8th (24 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Samgurali | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 | 40 | 31 |
| 8 | Gagra | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 30 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Samgurali vs Gagra?
- The Footlab model makes Samgurali the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Gagra.
- Where and when is Samgurali vs Gagra played?
- Samgurali vs Gagra is played on October 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, in the Erovnuli Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.