San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC)PayPal Park, San Jose, California
The Footlab model makes San Jose Earthquakes the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Nashville SC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC?
Nashville SC starts as the favourite with a 163-point Elo edge (1,910 vs 1,747).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Jose Earthquakes have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Nashville SC have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(home) | 1-5 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy(away) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | St. Louis City(home) | 1-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 2-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Columbus Crew(home) | 3-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 19, 2026 | New York Red Bulls(away) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Inter Miami(home) | 4-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Monterrey(away) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Atletico San Luis(home) | 4-1 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 San Jose Earthquakes win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Nashville SC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2024 | Nashville SC 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 24, 2023 | San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| Jun 12, 2022 | Nashville SC 0-0 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| Apr 16, 2022 | San Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Nashville SC vs San Jose Earthquakes on Apr 28, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
San Jose Earthquakes score 1.7 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Nashville SC score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 1.7 | 2.3 | 0 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Nashville SC | 1.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Jose Earthquakes sit 4th in Major League Soccer (33 points from 21 matches) and Nashville SC sit 1st (49 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 17 | 49 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 33 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC?
- The Footlab model makes San Jose Earthquakes the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Nashville SC.
- Where and when is San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC played?
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC is played on October 18, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC) at PayPal Park, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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