Sandefjord vs Lillestrom: prediction and stats
EliteserienRegular Season - 24Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Jotun Arena, Sandefjord
The Footlab model makes Lillestrom the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Sandefjord. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Sandefjord (1,942) and Lillestrom (2,026).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sandefjord have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Lillestrom have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Eidanger(away) | 15-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sarpsborg 08 FF(away) | 2-1 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 7, 2026 | KFUM Oslo(home) | 0-1 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fredrikstad(away) | 0-1 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(home) | 0-3 | Eliteserien |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | KFUM Oslo(away) | 1-1 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rosenborg(home) | 0-2 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(away) | 0-4 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Viking(home) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sandefjord win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Lillestrom win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Lillestrom 3-1 Sandefjord | Eliteserien |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Lillestrom 1-2 Sandefjord | Friendlies Clubs |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Lillestrom 0-3 Sandefjord | Eliteserien |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Sandefjord 0-1 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| Feb 16, 2024 | Lillestrom 2-2 Sandefjord | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Sandefjord 1-0 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
Last archived meeting: Lillestrom vs Sandefjord on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sandefjord score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lillestrom score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandefjord | 1.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Lillestrom | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sandefjord sit 13th in Eliteserien (18 points from 17 matches) and Lillestrom sit 5th (26 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lillestrom | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 21 | 26 |
| 13 | Sandefjord | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 23 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
- The Footlab model makes Lillestrom the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Sandefjord.
- Where and when is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom played?
- Sandefjord vs Lillestrom is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Jotun Arena, in the Eliteserien.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.