Molde vs Start: prediction and stats
EliteserienRegular Season - 24Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Aker Stadion, Molde
The Footlab model makes Molde the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Start. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Molde vs Start?
Molde starts as the favourite with a 149-point Elo edge (1,995 vs 1,845).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Molde have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Start have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Midsund(away) | 11-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tromso(home) | 3-2 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kristiansund BK(away) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sarpsborg 08 FF(home) | 3-3 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 26, 2026 | KFUM Oslo(away) | 4-2 | Eliteserien |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Flekkefjord(away) | 2-1 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fredrikstad(home) | 0-1 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Viking(home) | 0-3 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kristiansund BK(away) | 2-1 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Rosenborg(home) | 0-3 | Eliteserien |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Molde win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Start win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Start 1-1 Molde | Eliteserien |
| Aug 5, 2020 | Molde 5-0 Start | Eliteserien |
| Jun 24, 2020 | Start 2-3 Molde | Eliteserien |
| Oct 29, 2018 | Start 1-3 Molde | Eliteserien |
| May 27, 2018 | Molde 3-1 Start | Eliteserien |
| Jul 17, 2016 | Molde 2-2 Start | Eliteserien |
How many goals should we expect?
Molde score 2.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Start score 1.1 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molde | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Start | 1.1 | 2.3 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Molde sit 4th in Eliteserien (27 points from 17 matches) and Start sit 16th (10 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Molde | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 26 | 27 |
| 16 | Start | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Molde vs Start?
- The Footlab model makes Molde the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Start.
- Where and when is Molde vs Start played?
- Molde vs Start is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Aker Stadion, in the Eliteserien.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.