Santa Cruz vs Bala Azul: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 24Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Santa Cruz the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Bala Azul. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santa Cruz vs Bala Azul?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Santa Cruz (1,763) and Bala Azul (1,737).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santa Cruz have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Bala Azul have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Cartagena LU II(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 2, 2026 | Real Murcia II(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Yeclano II(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | SFC Minerva(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Atlético Pulpileño(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | UD Caravaca(home) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 2, 2026 | Cieza(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Muleño(home) | 3-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Olímpico Totana(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Cartagena LU II(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Santa Cruz win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Bala Azul win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Bala Azul 0-1 Santa Cruz | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Santa Cruz 1-0 Bala Azul | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: Bala Azul vs Santa Cruz on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santa Cruz score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Bala Azul score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz | 1.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Bala Azul | 1.5 | 1.3 | 6 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santa Cruz sit 8th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 (51 points from 34 matches) and Bala Azul sit 11th (38 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Santa Cruz | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 37 | 34 | 51 |
| 11 | Bala Azul | 34 | 7 | 17 | 10 | 36 | 36 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santa Cruz vs Bala Azul?
- The Footlab model makes Santa Cruz the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Bala Azul.
- Where and when is Santa Cruz vs Bala Azul played?
- Santa Cruz vs Bala Azul is played on February 28, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 28, 2027Los GarresvsMazarrón FC
- Feb 28, 2027SFC MinervavsAlcantarilla
- Feb 28, 2027UCAM Murcia IIvsÁguilas II
- Feb 28, 2027Unión MolinensevsEl Palmar
- Feb 28, 2027AlgarvsOlímpico Totana
- Feb 28, 2027Balsicas AtléticovsAtlético Pulpileño
- Feb 28, 2027SantomeravsCartagena LU II
- Feb 28, 2027Bullas DeportivovsSan Javier