Santos vs Palmeiras: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Santos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santos vs Palmeiras?
Palmeiras starts as the favourite with a 177-point Elo edge (2,126 vs 1,950).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santos have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Palmeiras have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Macara(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(away) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Macara(home) | 2-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(home) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(home) | 4-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Cerro Porteno(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 2-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Cerro Porteno(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 0-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Santos win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Palmeiras win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Palmeiras 1-1 Santos | Serie A |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Palmeiras 1-0 Santos | Paulista - A1 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Santos 1-0 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Palmeiras 2-0 Santos | Serie A |
| Jan 23, 2025 | Santos 1-2 Palmeiras | Paulista - A1 |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Palmeiras 2-0 Santos | Paulista - A1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Santos score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Palmeiras score 2.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Palmeiras | 2.0 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santos sit 14th in Serie A (26 points from 23 matches) and Palmeiras sit 1st (51 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 20 | 51 |
| 14 | Santos | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 36 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santos vs Palmeiras?
- The Footlab model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Santos.
- Where and when is Santos vs Palmeiras played?
- Santos vs Palmeiras is played on October 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.