Corinthians vs Mirassol: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Corinthians the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Mirassol. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Corinthians vs Mirassol?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Corinthians (2,004) and Mirassol (1,921).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Corinthians have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Mirassol have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Rosario Central(home) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rosario Central(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 2-1 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Santos(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | LDU de Quito(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 1-5 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | LDU de Quito(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 1-3 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Corinthians win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Mirassol win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Mirassol 2-1 Corinthians | Serie A |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Corinthians 3-0 Mirassol | Serie A |
| May 10, 2025 | Mirassol 2-1 Corinthians | Serie A |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Corinthians 2-0 Mirassol | Paulista - A1 |
| Feb 19, 2023 | Corinthians 3-0 Mirassol | Paulista - A1 |
| Feb 11, 2022 | Corinthians 2-1 Mirassol | Paulista - A1 |
Last archived meeting: Mirassol vs Corinthians on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Corinthians score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Mirassol score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 1.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Mirassol | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Corinthians sit 9th in Serie A (32 points from 23 matches) and Mirassol sit 17th (23 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Corinthians | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 25 | 22 | 32 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 25 | 35 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Corinthians vs Mirassol?
- The Footlab model makes Corinthians the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Mirassol.
- Where and when is Corinthians vs Mirassol played?
- Corinthians vs Mirassol is played on October 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Maracanã, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.