Bahia vs Sao Paulo: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, Bahia
The Footlab AI model makes Bahia the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Sao Paulo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bahia wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
On Elo ratings, Bahia has 1,879 points and Sao Paulo 1,815.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bahia vs Sao Paulo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bahia
4-3-3- 9A. Véliz
- 16Erick Pulga
- 99C. Olivera
- 11Rodrigo Nestor
- 5N. Acevedo
- 14Erick
- 33David Duarte
- 46Luciano Juba
- 44Marcos Victor
- 4Kanu
- 1Ronaldo
Sao Paulo
3-4-3- 37Artur
- 16D. Bobadilla
- 9J. Calleri
- 8Marcos Antônio
- 32Pedro Lima
- 29Pablo Maia
- 18Wendell
- 5R. Arboleda
- 2R. Tolói
- 35Sabino
- 31Carlos Coronel
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 07:58 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bahia have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Sao Paulo have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Remo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Santos(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Boca Juniors(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Palmeiras(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Bahia win, 1 draw, 4 Sao Paulo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Sao Paulo 2-2 Bahia | Serie A |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Sao Paulo 2-0 Bahia | Serie A |
| May 31, 2025 | Bahia 2-1 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Nov 6, 2024 | Bahia 0-3 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Sao Paulo 3-1 Bahia | Serie A |
| Nov 29, 2023 | Bahia 0-1 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Bahia score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sao Paulo score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 1.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Sao Paulo | 1.0 | 1.2 | 2 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bahia sit 6th in Serie A (46 points from 28 matches) and Sao Paulo sit 11th (36 points from 29 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43 | 35 | 46 |
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 33 | 34 | 36 |
A question about Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bahia the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Sao Paulo.
- Where and when is Bahia vs Sao Paulo played?
- Bahia vs Sao Paulo is played on October 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Fonte Nova, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.