Bahia vs Sao Paulo: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, Bahia
The Footlab model makes Bahia the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Sao Paulo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Bahia (1,960) and Sao Paulo (1,941).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bahia have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; Sao Paulo have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc(away) | 3-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(home) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Corinthians(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bolívar(home) | 3-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Coritiba(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Bolívar(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gremio(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Bahia win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Sao Paulo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Sao Paulo 2-2 Bahia | Serie A |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Sao Paulo 2-0 Bahia | Serie A |
| May 31, 2025 | Bahia 2-1 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Nov 6, 2024 | Bahia 0-3 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Sao Paulo 3-1 Bahia | Serie A |
| Nov 29, 2023 | Bahia 0-1 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Bahia score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Sao Paulo score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 1.4 | 1.4 | 4 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Sao Paulo | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bahia sit 6th in Serie A (37 points from 24 matches) and Sao Paulo sit 13th (27 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 37 |
| 13 | Sao Paulo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 26 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
- The Footlab model makes Bahia the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Sao Paulo.
- Where and when is Bahia vs Sao Paulo played?
- Bahia vs Sao Paulo is played on October 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Fonte Nova, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.