Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul
The Footlab model makes Atletico Paranaense the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Gremio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Gremio (1,919) and Atletico Paranaense (1,997).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gremio have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Atletico Paranaense have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atletico-MG(away) | 0-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sao Paulo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 1-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Mirassol(away) | 1-1 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Santos(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 0-4 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Vitoria(home) | 2-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Gremio win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Atletico Paranaense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense 0-0 Gremio | Serie A |
| Aug 4, 2024 | Atletico Paranaense 0-2 Gremio | Serie A |
| Apr 17, 2024 | Gremio 2-0 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| Oct 18, 2023 | Gremio 1-2 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| May 27, 2023 | Atletico Paranaense 1-2 Gremio | Serie A |
| Sep 26, 2021 | Atletico Paranaense 4-2 Gremio | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gremio score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Paranaense score 1.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Atletico Paranaense | 1.3 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gremio sit 15th in Serie A (25 points from 23 matches) and Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd (41 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 41 |
| 15 | Gremio | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 24 | 31 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Paranaense the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Gremio.
- Where and when is Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense played?
- Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense is played on October 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Arena do Grêmio, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.