Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom: prediction and stats
EliteserienRegular Season - 27Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg
The Footlab model makes Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Lillestrom. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Sarpsborg 08 FF (1,967) and Lillestrom (2,026).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sarpsborg 08 FF have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Lillestrom have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sparta Sarpsborg(away) | 2-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sandefjord(home) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Viking(away) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Molde(away) | 3-3 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ham-Kam(home) | 1-0 | Eliteserien |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | KFUM Oslo(away) | 1-1 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rosenborg(home) | 0-2 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(away) | 0-4 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Viking(home) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sarpsborg 08 FF win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Lillestrom win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Lillestrom 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Lillestrom 3-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF | NM Cupen |
| Jul 28, 2024 | Lillestrom 2-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien |
| May 5, 2024 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-1 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| May 16, 2023 | Lillestrom 1-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien |
Last archived meeting: Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sarpsborg 08 FF score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lillestrom score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpsborg 08 FF | 1.2 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Lillestrom | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sarpsborg 08 FF sit 9th in Eliteserien (22 points from 17 matches) and Lillestrom sit 5th (26 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lillestrom | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 21 | 26 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
- The Footlab model makes Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Lillestrom.
- Where and when is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom played?
- Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom is played on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Sarpsborg Stadion, in the Eliteserien.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.