Match

SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau

SC FreiburgFSV Mainz 05

The Footlab AI model makes SC Freiburg the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for FSV Mainz 05. The most likely score is 1-1. If SC Freiburg wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,496 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05?

SC Freiburg starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (2,216 vs 2,115).

46%24%30%
SC Freiburg winDrawFSV Mainz 05 win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

SC Freiburg

4-2-3-1
  1. 9L. Höler
  1. 8M. Eggestein
  2. 14Y. Suzuki
  3. 19J. Beste
  4. 7D. Scherhant
  5. 16Y. Engelhardt
  1. 28M. Ginter
  2. 33J. Makengo
  3. 3P. Lienhart
  4. 17L. Kübler
  1. 1M. Backhaus

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2
  1. 9P. Tietz
  2. 23S. Becker
  1. 2P. Mwene
  2. 6K. Sano
  3. 10N. Amiri
  4. 19A. Caci
  5. 7Lee Jae-Sung
  1. 4S. Posch
  2. 48K. Potulski
  3. 21D. da Costa
  1. 1A. Schwolow

Computed on November 4, 2026 at 05:16 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, SC Freiburg have 11 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 have 8, 2 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

SC Freiburg
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 31, 2026FC Augsburg(away)2-1Bundesliga
Oct 28, 2026VfL Wolfsburg(home)3-2DFB Pokal
Oct 25, 2026Bayern München(home)1-3Bundesliga
Oct 22, 2026Monaco(away)0-3UEFA Europa Conference League
Oct 18, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(away)1-2Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 30, 2026SV Elversberg(away)1-4Bundesliga
Oct 27, 2026VfL Bochum(away)0-2DFB Pokal
Oct 24, 2026Werder Bremen(home)2-3Bundesliga
Oct 17, 2026FC Schalke 04(away)1-0Bundesliga
Oct 10, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(home)3-4Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 SC Freiburg wins, 3 draws, 0 FSV Mainz 05 wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 12, 2026FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
Nov 30, 2025SC Freiburg 4-0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Mar 15, 2025FSV Mainz 05 2-2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
Nov 3, 2024SC Freiburg 0-0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Apr 21, 2024SC Freiburg 1-1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Dec 3, 2023FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga

Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg on Apr 12, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

SC Freiburg score 2.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 score 2.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
SC Freiburg2.71.5212/1514/15
FSV Mainz 052.61.577/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

SC Freiburg sit 3rd in Bundesliga (16 points from 8 matches) and FSV Mainz 05 sit 9th (10 points from 8 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3SC Freiburg8512181016
9FSV Mainz 058314171710

A question about SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
The Footlab AI model makes SC Freiburg the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for FSV Mainz 05.
Where and when is SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 played?
SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on April 17, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Europa-Park Stadion, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05

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